Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2007 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35%.

Safest bet that day WN 2007 HOU 07:30 → LAX 08:55 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest WN 4802 HOU 19:25 → LAX 20:50 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2007 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 07:30	LAX 08:55	13%	2%	1.8%	84%
WN 2008 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 11:55	LAX 13:20	18%	4%	2.3%	73%
WN 2011 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 22:40	LAX 00:10	35%	7%	0.7%	50%
WN 4802 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 19:25	LAX 20:50	35%	7%	0.8%	50%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	HOU 06:20 → PHX 06:55WN 2062	1h 00m Phoenix	PHX 07:55 → LAX 09:20WN 2427	5h 00m	96%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON