Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2013 at 05:50 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24–45%.

Safest bet that day WN 2013 HOU 05:50 → LGA 10:15 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 4392 HOU 14:40 → LGA 19:10 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 5% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2013 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 05:50	LGA 10:15	6%	1%	2.5%	96%
WN 2014 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 11:15	LGA 15:45	24%	7%	2.5%	59%
WN 2190 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 17:25	LGA 21:55	43%	14%	1.3%	28%
WN 4392 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 14:40	LGA 19:10	45%	12%	1.1%	5%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	HOU 07:50 → MSY 09:00WN 1796	50m New Orleans	MSY 09:50 → LGA 13:45WN 3008	4h 55m	85%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON