Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2022 at 09:30 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 2022 HOU 09:30 → MAF 10:55 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 4800 HOU 22:40 → MAF 00:10 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2022 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 09:30	MAF 10:55	8%	2%	3.2%	92%
WN 368 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 12:25	MAF 13:55	14%	4%	3.9%	58%
WN 4995 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 16:05	MAF 17:35	23%	6%	1.3%	68%
WN 4800 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 22:40	MAF 00:10	32%	7%	0.9%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON