Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2039 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 2039 HOU 06:25 → MDW 08:50 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 2044 HOU 20:35 → MDW 23:05 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 38% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2039 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 06:25	MDW 08:50	6%	1%	2.4%	92%
WN 1294 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 08:10	MDW 10:40	9%	1%	3.1%	84%
WN 1019 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 11:20	MDW 13:45	16%	3%	3.8%	73%
WN 2041 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 13:30	MDW 15:55	19%	5%	1.7%	33%
WN 2043 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 18:50	MDW 21:15	25%	8%	0.9%	50%
WN 2042 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 16:40	MDW 19:05	26%	8%	1.2%	36%
WN 2044 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 20:35	MDW 23:05	27%	8%	0.8%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON