Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4859 at 21:00, with a 32% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4859 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 21:00	MIA 00:30	32%	10%	1.3%	27%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	1h 55m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	6h 02m	98%	78%
Southwest Details →	HOU 07:10 → BNA 09:10WN 1954	2h 20m Nashville	BNA 11:30 → MIA 14:50WN 581	6h 40m	99%	72%
Southwest Details →	HOU 07:00 → DAL 08:10WN 4	3h 20m Dallas	DAL 11:30 → MIA 15:20WN 1361	7h 20m	100%	70%
Southwest Details →	HOU 09:25 → AUS 10:20WN 270	1h 30m Austin	AUS 11:50 → MIA 15:40WN 362	5h 15m	95%	70%
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	6h 38m	95%	69%
Southwest Details →	HOU 07:20 → STL 09:25WN 4084	3h 20m St Louis	STL 12:45 → MIA 16:25WN 2901	8h 05m	99%	68%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	2h 17m Atlanta	ATL 16:03 → MIA 18:20DL 1323	6h 40m	98%	67%
Southwest Details →	HOU 14:10 → BNA 16:05WN 478	3h 10m Nashville	BNA 19:15 → MIA 22:40WN 4575	7h 30m	100%	67%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	HOU 15:25 → BWI 19:35WN 184	55m Baltimore	BWI 20:30 → MIA 23:20WN 235	6h 55m	68%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON