Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2049 at 05:35 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 2049 HOU 05:35 → MSY 06:45 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest WN 4756 HOU 20:40 → MSY 21:55 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2049 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 05:35	MSY 06:45	5%	1%	3.9%	95%
WN 1796 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 07:50	MSY 09:00	10%	2%	2.4%	88%
WN 2051 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 10:45	MSY 12:00	15%	3%	2.4%	86%
WN 582 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 18:05	MSY 19:15	32%	11%	3.5%	23%
WN 2055 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 22:35	MSY 23:50	33%	10%	7.1%	73%
WN 2052 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 14:15	MSY 15:25	33%	8%	1.7%	62%
WN 4756 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 20:40	MSY 21:55	35%	11%	6.9%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON