Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Oakland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2056 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 07:35	OAK 09:30	9%	2%	1.8%	92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	HOU 05:30 → LAS 06:30WN 3671	1h 05m Las Vegas	LAS 07:35 → OAK 09:10WN 5052	5h 40m	100%	89%
Southwest Details →	HOU 07:45 → ONT 08:55WN 4391	2h 10m Ontario	ONT 11:05 → OAK 12:20WN 3154	6h 35m	99%	86%
Southwest Details →	HOU 06:20 → PHX 06:55WN 2062	50m Phoenix	PHX 07:45 → OAK 09:45WN 3303	5h 25m	93%	83%
Southwest Details →	HOU 07:45 → LGB 09:00WN 2019	2h 55m Long Beach	LGB 11:55 → OAK 13:10WN 2488	7h 25m	100%	83%
Southwest Details →	HOU 06:25 → MDW 08:50WN 2039	1h 20m Chicago	MDW 10:10 → OAK 12:40WN 3366	8h 15m	100%	82%
Southwest Details →	HOU 05:30 → DEN 06:55WN 1970	4h 00m Denver	DEN 10:55 → OAK 12:25WN 1577	8h 55m	100%	81%
Southwest Details →	HOU 07:35 → ABQ 08:40WN 1943	3h 30m Albuquerque	ABQ 12:10 → OAK 13:30WN 143	7h 55m	100%	81%
Southwest Details →	HOU 07:30 → SAN 08:40WN 3824	3h 05m San Diego	SAN 11:45 → OAK 13:25WN 3517	7h 55m	100%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	HOU 06:35 → LAS 07:40WN 1998	55m Las Vegas	LAS 08:35 → OAK 10:10WN 1254	5h 35m	72%	64%
Southwest Details →	HOU 19:50 → PHX 20:35WN 982	50m Phoenix	PHX 21:25 → OAK 23:20WN 3306	5h 30m	67%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON