tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching West Palm Beach on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach West Palm Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (West Palm Beach is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557 1h 58m Atlanta ATL 11:03 → PBI 12:54DL 1190 5h 54m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 22:59 → PBI 00:51 +1DL 1065 6h 34m 95% 73%
DeltaDetails → HOU 12:55 → ATL 15:59DL 1195 3h 00m Atlanta ATL 18:59 → PBI 20:51DL 1058 6h 56m 97% 73%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 05:25 → BWI 09:30WN 3797 2h 05m Baltimore BWI 11:35 → PBI 14:05WN 1044 7h 40m 100% 69%
DeltaDetails → HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509 2h 54m Atlanta ATL 16:40 → PBI 18:36DL 959 6h 56m 99% 69%
AmericanDetails → HOU 06:03 → DFW 07:29AA 5492 · flown by PSA 2h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:30 → PBI 13:21AA 2276 6h 18m 90% 67%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 11:00 → BNA 12:55WN 1955 2h 20m Nashville BNA 15:15 → PBI 18:25WN 4848 6h 25m 99% 62%
AmericanDetails → HOU 10:18 → DFW 11:43AA 5071 · flown by PSA 1h 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:29 → PBI 17:19AA 2282 6h 01m 92% 56%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → HOU 15:25 → BWI 19:35WN 184 1h 05m Baltimore BWI 20:40 → PBI 23:20WN 1045 6h 55m 74% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON