Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2062 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–36%.

Safest bet that day WN 2062 HOU 06:20 → PHX 06:55 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 2066 HOU 22:35 → PHX 23:20 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2062 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 06:20	PHX 06:55	4%	1%	3.2%	93%
WN 2063 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 12:00	PHX 12:40	20%	5%	3.2%	85%
WN 3304 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 14:25	PHX 15:05	32%	9%	1.6%	55%
WN 982 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 19:50	PHX 20:35	33%	10%	0.8%	56%
WN 2066 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 22:35	PHX 23:20	36%	11%	0.9%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON