Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4795 at 12:00, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4795 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 12:00	PNS 13:30	18%	4%	3.1%	71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	HOU 07:00 → DAL 08:10WN 4	1h 25m Dallas	DAL 09:35 → PNS 11:25WN 3796	4h 25m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	1h 34m Atlanta	ATL 10:39 → PNS 10:51DL 3198	4h 51m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	3h 02m Atlanta	ATL 16:48 → PNS 17:03DL 2211	6h 23m	99%	81%
Southwest Details →	HOU 09:25 → AUS 10:20WN 270	3h 35m Austin	AUS 13:55 → PNS 15:45WN 931	6h 20m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	HOU 12:55 → ATL 15:59DL 1195	3h 50m Atlanta	ATL 19:49 → PNS 20:04DL 3021	7h 09m	98%	79%
Southwest Details →	HOU 09:05 → BNA 11:00WN 5068	4h 00m Nashville	BNA 15:00 → PNS 16:20WN 1514	7h 15m	100%	77%
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 23:28 → PNS 23:43DL 2807	6h 26m	97%	77%
Southwest Details →	HOU 10:40 → STL 12:45WN 2084	2h 10m St Louis	STL 14:55 → PNS 16:40WN 279	6h 00m	99%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON