tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4411 at 15:10, with a 29% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4411 Southwest Flight history → HOU 15:10 RDU 18:50 29% 6% 1.4% 52%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557 2h 07m Atlanta ATL 11:12 → RDU 12:42DL 1488 5h 42m 98% 88%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 05:25 → BWI 09:30WN 3797 2h 05m Baltimore BWI 11:35 → RDU 12:45WN 4442 6h 20m 100% 87%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 07:10 → BNA 09:10WN 1954 1h 00m Nashville BNA 10:10 → RDU 12:40WN 1795 4h 30m 95% 84%
DeltaDetails → HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509 3h 32m Atlanta ATL 17:18 → RDU 18:54DL 1097 7h 14m 100% 81%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 08:10 → MDW 10:40WN 1294 2h 40m Chicago MDW 13:20 → RDU 16:15WN 4462 7h 05m 100% 80%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 09:05 → BNA 11:00WN 5068 3h 20m Nashville BNA 14:20 → RDU 16:55WN 653 6h 50m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → HOU 12:55 → ATL 15:59DL 1195 3h 26m Atlanta ATL 19:25 → RDU 20:57DL 1518 7h 02m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381 2h 38m Atlanta ATL 23:10 → RDU 00:42 +1DL 2938 6h 25m 96% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → HOU 17:40 → BNA 19:35WN 1957 1h 00m Nashville BNA 20:35 → RDU 23:15WN 4431 4h 35m 71% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON