Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 2077 at 11:15, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2077 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 11:15	SDF 14:25	14%	4%	4.2%	62%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Louisville is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	HOU 05:25 → BWI 09:30WN 3797	1h 15m Baltimore	BWI 10:45 → SDF 12:30WN 1297	6h 05m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	1h 25m Atlanta	ATL 10:30 → SDF 11:51DL 1481	4h 51m	98%	88%
Southwest Details →	HOU 06:25 → MDW 08:50WN 2039	3h 55m Chicago	MDW 12:45 → SDF 14:55WN 4473	7h 30m	100%	86%
Southwest Details →	HOU 07:10 → BNA 09:10WN 1954	55m Nashville	BNA 10:05 → SDF 12:00WN 670	3h 50m	94%	82%
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381	2h 30m Atlanta	ATL 23:02 → SDF 00:26 +1DL 2624	6h 09m	96%	79%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → SDF 17:49DL 1126	6h 09m	98%	79%
American Details →	HOU 06:03 → DFW 07:29AA 5492 · flown by PSA	2h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:31 → SDF 12:48AA 3791 · flown by Envoy	5h 45m	90%	79%
American Details →	HOU 10:18 → DFW 11:43AA 5071 · flown by PSA	2h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:17 → SDF 17:30AA 4152 · flown by Envoy	6h 12m	96%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	HOU 17:40 → BNA 19:35WN 1957	55m Nashville	BNA 20:30 → SDF 22:30WN 671	3h 50m	67%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON