Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 69% chance of reaching Seattle on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3566 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 14:45	SEA 17:25	38%	9%	1.2%	54%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	2h 05m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → SEA 13:35DL 648	9h 35m	98%	84%
Southwest Details →	HOU 06:25 → MDW 08:50WN 2039	1h 50m Chicago	MDW 10:40 → SEA 13:10WN 1340	8h 45m	100%	77%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	2h 59m Atlanta	ATL 16:45 → SEA 19:05DL 472	10h 25m	99%	76%
Southwest Details →	HOU 06:20 → PHX 06:55WN 2062	3h 50m Phoenix	PHX 10:45 → SEA 13:50WN 814	9h 30m	100%	76%
Southwest Details →	HOU 07:20 → STL 09:25WN 4084	2h 15m St Louis	STL 11:40 → SEA 13:55WN 3981	8h 35m	99%	76%
Southwest Details →	HOU 07:35 → SMF 09:25WN 2082	1h 35m Sacramento	SMF 11:00 → SEA 12:55WN 1739	7h 20m	97%	73%
Southwest Details →	HOU 05:30 → DEN 06:55WN 1970	3h 10m Denver	DEN 10:05 → SEA 12:05WN 3051	8h 35m	100%	72%
Southwest Details →	HOU 05:30 → LAS 06:30WN 3671	1h 10m Las Vegas	LAS 07:40 → SEA 10:25WN 739	6h 55m	100%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON