tailodds FORECAST
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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching San Francisco on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557 3h 54m Atlanta ATL 12:59 → SFO 14:50DL 750 10h 50m 100% 77%
DeltaDetails → HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509 1h 49m Atlanta ATL 15:35 → SFO 17:31DL 823 8h 51m 97% 71%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 06:25 → MDW 08:50WN 2039 1h 15m Chicago MDW 10:05 → SFO 12:35WN 1546 8h 10m 100% 71%
DeltaDetails → HOU 12:55 → ATL 15:59DL 1195 2h 09m Atlanta ATL 18:08 → SFO 20:05DL 517 9h 10m 95% 69%
DeltaDetails → HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381 2h 08m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → SFO 00:36 +1DL 656 9h 19m 94% 69%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 05:30 → LAS 06:30WN 3671 1h 05m Las Vegas LAS 07:35 → SFO 09:10WN 2934 5h 40m 100% 64%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 08:15 → DEN 09:45WN 1971 1h 55m Denver DEN 11:40 → SFO 13:20WN 1719 7h 05m 99% 64%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 07:30 → SAN 08:40WN 3824 2h 35m San Diego SAN 11:15 → SFO 13:00WN 1677 7h 30m 100% 64%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON