Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Phoenix, leaving 06:20, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2079 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 07:30	SJC 09:20	7%	1%	3.1%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	HOU 05:30 → LAS 06:30WN 3671	3h 25m Las Vegas	LAS 09:55 → SJC 11:30WN 439	8h 00m	100%	88%
Southwest Details →	HOU 07:45 → ONT 08:55WN 4391	1h 55m Ontario	ONT 10:50 → SJC 12:00WN 3162	6h 15m	99%	87%
Southwest Details →	HOU 05:30 → DEN 06:55WN 1970	2h 35m Denver	DEN 09:30 → SJC 11:00WN 2384	7h 30m	100%	86%
Southwest Details →	HOU 06:20 → PHX 06:55WN 2062	2h 45m Phoenix	PHX 09:40 → SJC 11:35WN 3336	7h 15m	99%	85%
Southwest Details →	HOU 06:25 → MDW 08:50WN 2039	1h 15m Chicago	MDW 10:05 → SJC 12:30WN 3752	8h 05m	100%	85%
Southwest Details →	HOU 07:45 → LGB 09:00WN 2019	3h 00m Long Beach	LGB 12:00 → SJC 13:10WN 4973	7h 25m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	3h 13m Atlanta	ATL 16:59 → SJC 18:52DL 2136	10h 12m	99%	81%
Southwest Details →	HOU 07:30 → LAX 08:55WN 2007	2h 20m Los Angeles	LAX 11:15 → SJC 12:25WN 2432	6h 55m	100%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	HOU 10:45 → LAS 11:55WN 652	50m Las Vegas	LAS 12:45 → SJC 14:20WN 4223	5h 35m	66%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON