Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Phoenix, leaving 06:20, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Sacramento on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2082 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 07:35	SMF 09:25	10%	2%	2.8%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	HOU 05:30 → LAS 06:30WN 3671	2h 05m Las Vegas	LAS 08:35 → SMF 10:05WN 860	6h 35m	100%	88%
Southwest Details →	HOU 05:30 → DEN 06:55WN 1970	1h 00m Denver	DEN 07:55 → SMF 09:30WN 1738	6h 00m	96%	87%
Southwest Details →	HOU 07:45 → ONT 08:55WN 4391	3h 05m Ontario	ONT 12:00 → SMF 13:20WN 3167	7h 35m	100%	84%
Southwest Details →	HOU 06:20 → PHX 06:55WN 2062	2h 40m Phoenix	PHX 09:35 → SMF 11:30WN 781	7h 10m	99%	84%
Southwest Details →	HOU 06:35 → LAS 07:40WN 1998	1h 55m Las Vegas	LAS 09:35 → SMF 11:10WN 1122	6h 35m	95%	82%
Southwest Details →	HOU 06:25 → MDW 08:50WN 2039	1h 30m Chicago	MDW 10:20 → SMF 12:40WN 2094	8h 15m	100%	80%
Southwest Details →	HOU 07:45 → LGB 09:00WN 2019	55m Long Beach	LGB 09:55 → SMF 11:20WN 2504	5h 35m	85%	76%
Southwest Details →	HOU 09:05 → BNA 11:00WN 5068	3h 10m Nashville	BNA 14:10 → SMF 16:45WN 4124	9h 40m	100%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	HOU 06:35 → LAS 07:40WN 1998	55m Las Vegas	LAS 08:35 → SMF 10:05WN 860	5h 30m	72%	63%
Southwest Details →	HOU 19:00 → DAL 20:10WN 52	1h 00m Dallas	DAL 21:10 → SMF 22:45WN 4365	5h 45m	72%	44%
Southwest Details →	HOU 13:45 → SAN 14:55WN 4486	50m San Diego	SAN 15:45 → SMF 17:20WN 4464	5h 35m	63%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON