Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Sacramento, leaving 07:35, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	HOU 07:35 → SMF 09:25WN 2082	2h 25m Sacramento	SMF 11:50 → SNA 13:20WN 3831	7h 45m	100%	83%
Southwest Details →	HOU 07:35 → OAK 09:30WN 2056	2h 35m Oakland	OAK 12:05 → SNA 13:35WN 3086	8h 00m	100%	83%
Southwest Details →	HOU 06:20 → PHX 06:55WN 2062	1h 15m Phoenix	PHX 08:10 → SNA 09:30WN 3348	5h 10m	97%	82%
Southwest Details →	HOU 07:30 → SJC 09:20WN 2079	2h 45m San Jose	SJC 12:05 → SNA 13:30WN 3710	8h 00m	98%	81%
Southwest Details →	HOU 05:30 → LAS 06:30WN 3671	2h 40m Las Vegas	LAS 09:10 → SNA 10:20WN 187	6h 50m	100%	81%
Southwest Details →	HOU 14:45 → DEN 16:30WN 5075	4h 00m Denver	DEN 20:30 → SNA 22:00WN 744	9h 15m	100%	79%
Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	1h 55m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31DL 329	8h 31m	98%	78%
American Details →	HOU 06:03 → DFW 07:29AA 5492 · flown by PSA	56m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:25 → SNA 09:33AA 2680	5h 30m	90%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	HOU 17:55 → DEN 19:40WN 1974	50m Denver	DEN 20:30 → SNA 22:00WN 744	6h 05m	66%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON