Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4084 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 4084 HOU 07:20 → STL 09:25 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest WN 4724 HOU 17:10 → STL 19:10 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4084 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 07:20	STL 09:25	6%	1%	2.2%	83%
WN 2084 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 10:40	STL 12:45	11%	2%	3.1%	76%
WN 4642 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 13:20	STL 15:20	20%	4%	1.4%	76%
WN 5064 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 15:00	STL 17:00	23%	5%	1.2%	73%
WN 2087 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 22:40	STL 00:45	26%	4%	0.7%	76%
WN 4724 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 17:10	STL 19:10	27%	6%	1.3%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON