Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2088 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 31–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 2088 HOU 06:45 → TPA 10:00 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 2090 HOU 20:55 → TPA 00:10 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2088 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 06:45	TPA 10:00	6%	1%	20.4%	92%
WN 3709 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 14:40	TPA 17:55	31%	7%	17.5%	34%
WN 2090 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 20:55	TPA 00:10	32%	7%	10.5%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON