Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4108 at 15:35, with a 23% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4108 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 15:35	VPS 17:20	23%	4%	1.6%	70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	1h 10m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → VPS 10:29DL 2048	4h 29m	97%	88%
Southwest Details →	HOU 05:25 → BWI 09:30WN 3797	2h 30m Baltimore	BWI 12:00 → VPS 13:20WN 246	7h 55m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	2h 19m Atlanta	ATL 16:05 → VPS 16:21DL 3083	5h 41m	98%	83%
Southwest Details →	HOU 07:00 → DAL 08:10WN 4	1h 50m Dallas	DAL 10:00 → VPS 11:55WN 205	4h 55m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	HOU 12:55 → ATL 15:59DL 1195	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 18:28 → VPS 18:42DL 2803	5h 47m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 23:15 → VPS 23:29DL 3097	6h 12m	97%	82%
Southwest Details →	HOU 13:20 → STL 15:20WN 4642	2h 05m St Louis	STL 17:25 → VPS 19:15WN 3988	5h 55m	100%	77%
Southwest Details →	HOU 14:10 → BNA 16:05WN 478	3h 35m Nashville	BNA 19:40 → VPS 21:10WN 2982	7h 00m	100%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	HOU 18:49 → DFW 20:15AA 6385 · flown by SkyWest	55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:10 → VPS 23:08AA 1201	4h 19m	74%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON