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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 35 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 4 HOU 07:00 → DAL 08:10 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 64 HOU 22:00 → DAL 23:10 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.

WN 4 Southwest Flight history → HOU 07:00 DAL 08:10 5% 1% 3.6% 94%
AA 2551 American Flight history → IAH 05:02 DFW 06:19 5% 4% 0.8% 90%
WN 8 Southwest Flight history → HOU 08:00 DAL 09:10 6% 1% 4.0% 88%
AA 700 American Flight history → IAH 06:02 DFW 07:28 7% 4% 0.8% 90%
WN 14 Southwest Flight history → HOU 09:30 DAL 10:35 9% 2% 2.8% 88%
AA 5492 American flown by PSA Flight history → HOU 06:03 DFW 07:29 10% 5% 3.0% 86%
UA 358 United Flight history → IAH 07:23 DFW 08:50 10% 4% 0.6% 86%
AA 3002 American Flight history → IAH 07:00 DFW 08:31 10% 6% 0.7% 81%
UA 2074 United Flight history → IAH 09:31 DFW 10:57 12% 5% 0.6% 82%
WN 22 Southwest Flight history → HOU 11:30 DAL 12:40 14% 3% 4.3% 86%
AA 5071 American flown by PSA Flight history → HOU 10:18 DFW 11:43 15% 7% 2.9% 64%
AA 3193 American Flight history → IAH 09:27 DFW 10:51 15% 6% 0.7% 78%
UA 1183 United Flight history → IAH 21:37 DFW 22:59 15% 5% 0.6% 62%
AA 1916 American Flight history → IAH 10:39 DFW 12:03 16% 7% 0.7% 65%
AA 3583 American flown by Envoy Flight history → IAH 16:18 DFW 17:48 17% 6% 1.0% 70%
WN 30 Southwest Flight history → HOU 13:30 DAL 14:40 17% 4% 2.5% 76%
AA 2166 American IAH 11:42 DFW 13:07 18% 8% 0.8% no record
UA 1388 United Flight history → IAH 14:46 DFW 16:16 18% 6% 0.6% 77%
AA 6413 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → HOU 12:46 DFW 14:09 18% 11% 2.9% 74%
AA 3351 American flown by Envoy Flight history → HOU 20:23 DFW 21:50 19% 5% 1.9% 73%
UA 1439 United Flight history → IAH 16:20 DFW 17:46 21% 8% 0.6% 70%
AA 2512 American Flight history → IAH 14:04 DFW 15:30 22% 9% 0.8% 49%
WN 40 Southwest Flight history → HOU 16:00 DAL 17:10 24% 5% 2.2% 75%
WN 36 Southwest Flight history → HOU 15:00 DAL 16:10 24% 5% 2.2% 77%
UA 1949 United Flight history → IAH 19:59 DFW 21:25 25% 7% 0.7% 71%
AA 5002 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → HOU 16:14 DFW 17:38 25% 11% 2.5% 60%
UA 1535 United Flight history → IAH 18:05 DFW 19:31 25% 7% 0.7% 71%
AA 6385 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → HOU 18:49 DFW 20:15 26% 11% 2.8% 52%
AA 4923 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → IAH 19:49 DFW 21:15 26% 8% 1.2% 73%
WN 46 Southwest Flight history → HOU 17:30 DAL 18:40 27% 6% 2.0% 73%
WN 54 Southwest Flight history → HOU 20:30 DAL 21:40 27% 6% 1.2% 72%
WN 52 Southwest Flight history → HOU 19:00 DAL 20:10 28% 6% 1.2% 75%
AA 1929 American Flight history → IAH 18:53 DFW 20:25 28% 11% 1.0% 23%
WN 64 Southwest Flight history → HOU 22:00 DAL 23:10 28% 6% 1.1% 65%
UA 4024 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record IAH 12:05 DFW 13:34 20% 11% 0.0% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON