Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 25 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4391 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 4391 HOU 07:45 → ONT 08:55 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest WN 4802 HOU 19:25 → LAX 20:50 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4391 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 07:45	ONT 08:55	8%	2%	2.4%	77%
WN 2019 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 07:45	LGB 09:00	9%	2%	3.2%	81%
UA 2110 United Flight history →	IAH 06:00	LAX 07:29	11%	3%	0.7%	100%worse than usual
DL 1216 Delta Flight history →	IAH 07:10	LAX 08:30	11%	5%	0.7%	94%
UA 2600 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	LAX 08:57	11%	3%	0.6%	91%
UA 469 United Flight history →	IAH 09:53	LAX 11:30	12%	4%	0.6%	89%
WN 2007 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 07:30	LAX 08:55	13%	2%	1.8%	84%
UA 1951 United Flight history →	IAH 14:54	LAX 16:27	13%	4%	0.6%	84%
UA 2460 United Flight history →	IAH 12:33	LAX 14:06	13%	4%	0.6%	87%
UA 1383 United Flight history →	IAH 09:30	SNA 10:59	14%	4%	0.6%	91%
UA 2761 United Flight history →	IAH 20:12	SNA 21:45	16%	4%	0.6%	83%
UA 2780 United Flight history →	IAH 12:30	SNA 14:03	16%	6%	0.6%	86%
UA 1743 United Flight history →	IAH 16:31	LAX 18:08	16%	5%	0.6%	82%
DL 1143 Delta Flight history →	IAH 16:09	LAX 17:30	17%	6%	0.8%	76%
F9 3131 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 06:10	ONT 07:32	17%	4%	0.8%	78%
WN 2008 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 11:55	LAX 13:20	18%	4%	2.3%	73%
UA 2215 United Flight history →	IAH 22:03	LAX 23:38	19%	5%	0.6%	75%
UA 1563 United Flight history →	IAH 20:31	ONT 21:55	20%	6%	0.7%	79%
UA 2755 United Flight history →	IAH 18:33	LAX 20:10	20%	6%	0.6%	81%
UA 483 United Flight history →	IAH 19:50	LAX 21:26	21%	6%	0.6%	73%
UA 2095 United Flight history →	IAH 20:10	LAX 21:49	22%	6%	0.6%	76%
AA 5005 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IAH 20:15	LAX 21:55	23%	7%	0.7%	80%
F9 1755 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 16:02	LAX 17:30	26%	8%	1.0%	75%
WN 2011 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 22:40	LAX 00:10	35%	7%	0.7%	50%
WN 4802 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 19:25	LAX 20:50	35%	7%	0.8%	50%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	HOU 06:20 → PHX 06:55WN 2062	55m Phoenix	PHX 07:50 → ONT 09:05WN 759	4h 45m	94%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON