Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 28 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1797 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–43%.

Safest bet that day UA 1797 IAH 06:01 → EWR 10:36 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 4392 HOU 14:40 → LGA 19:10 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 5% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1797 United Flight history →	IAH 06:01	EWR 10:36	6%	2%	0.7%	93%
WN 2013 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 05:50	LGA 10:15	6%	1%	2.5%	96%
UA 1886 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	EWR 11:59	7%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 1417 Delta Flight history →	IAH 07:00	LGA 11:33	11%	4%	0.8%	88%
UA 1697 United Flight history →	IAH 07:00	LGA 11:29	12%	4%	0.6%	87%
UA 2133 United Flight history →	IAH 08:05	LGA 12:40	16%	4%	0.6%	80%
UA 2402 United Flight history →	IAH 09:48	EWR 14:27	16%	5%	0.7%	79%
DL 2140 Delta Flight history →	IAH 10:50	LGA 15:32	17%	6%	0.8%	82%
UA 2371 United Flight history →	IAH 12:00	EWR 16:46	17%	7%	0.7%	72%
UA 1340 United Flight history →	IAH 10:57	EWR 15:34	17%	7%	0.7%	73%
UA 1397 United Flight history →	IAH 13:46	EWR 18:30	19%	9%	0.7%	74%
UA 678 United Flight history →	IAH 09:47	LGA 14:29	20%	5%	0.6%	77%
UA 1444 United Flight history →	IAH 19:55	EWR 00:37	21%	7%	0.9%	76%
B6 1382 JetBlue Flight history →	IAH 11:50	JFK 16:29	24%	9%	0.8%	50%
UA 2181 United Flight history →	IAH 12:00	LGA 16:44	24%	7%	0.6%	66%
WN 2014 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 11:15	LGA 15:45	24%	7%	2.5%	59%
DL 2088 Delta Flight history →	IAH 14:10	LGA 18:59	25%	8%	0.8%	73%
UA 404 United Flight history →	IAH 18:18	EWR 23:00	26%	8%	0.9%	66%
UA 2608 United Flight history →	IAH 14:49	EWR 19:35	27%	10%	0.7%	59%
UA 2857 United Flight history →	IAH 17:15	LGA 21:59	27%	9%	0.8%	71%
DL 2943 Delta Flight history →	IAH 18:35	LGA 23:20	27%	9%	1.1%	60%
UA 700 United Flight history →	IAH 16:47	EWR 21:29	28%	11%	0.8%	64%
UA 2249 United Flight history →	IAH 14:20	LGA 19:04	29%	10%	0.6%	69%
UA 334 United Flight history →	IAH 16:15	LGA 20:59	32%	12%	0.7%	61%
UA 2783 United Flight history →	IAH 18:31	LGA 23:14	32%	10%	0.7%	42%
B6 282 JetBlue Flight history →	IAH 18:17	JFK 23:00	39%	15%	1.2%	45%
WN 2190 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 17:25	LGA 21:55	43%	14%	1.3%	28%
WN 4392 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 14:40	LGA 19:10	45%	12%	1.1%	5%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	HOU 07:50 → MSY 09:00WN 1796	50m New Orleans	MSY 09:50 → LGA 13:45WN 3008	4h 55m	85%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON