Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 25 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1047 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–48%.

Safest bet that day AA 1047 IAH 05:10 → MIA 08:51 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest B6 2180 IAH 16:42 → FLL 20:05 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1047 American Flight history →	IAH 05:10	MIA 08:51	9%	4%	1.2%	91%
UA 2261 United Flight history →	IAH 07:35	FLL 11:22	12%	3%	0.8%	94%
UA 1966 United Flight history →	IAH 07:25	MIA 11:12	13%	4%	1.0%	89%
AA 1347 American Flight history →	IAH 07:35	MIA 11:20	16%	5%	1.2%	87%
UA 2234 United Flight history →	IAH 10:00	FLL 13:47	16%	5%	0.8%	81%
WN 4355 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 10:10	FLL 13:40	18%	4%	2.4%	79%
UA 1706 United Flight history →	IAH 12:06	FLL 15:53	19%	6%	0.8%	64%
UA 462 United Flight history →	IAH 14:20	FLL 18:07	22%	7%	0.9%	84%
UA 1345 United Flight history →	IAH 12:25	PBI 15:56	23%	9%	3.2%	74%
AA 603 American Flight history →	IAH 09:40	MIA 13:22	24%	7%	3.4%	75%
UA 1956 United Flight history →	IAH 18:26	FLL 22:04	26%	8%	2.7%	77%
UA 410 United Flight history →	IAH 12:00	MIA 15:47	26%	9%	1.1%	84%worse than usual
UA 277 United Flight history →	IAH 16:35	FLL 20:22	26%	7%	1.3%	85%worse than usual
B6 2380 JetBlue Flight history →	IAH 07:24	FLL 10:47	27%	7%	1.2%	30%
WN 4253 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 13:25	FLL 16:55	27%	7%	1.7%	50%
F9 1496 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 08:20	FLL 12:01	29%	9%	1.5%	62%
AA 1918 American Flight history →	IAH 11:20	MIA 15:01	29%	9%	3.5%	57%
UA 1829 United Flight history →	IAH 19:01	MIA 22:40	31%	10%	1.2%	78%
WN 4859 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 21:00	MIA 00:30	32%	10%	1.3%	27%
WN 4825 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 20:40	FLL 00:10	33%	8%	1.7%	54%
F9 1068 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 20:37	MIA 00:31	34%	15%	3.2%	67%
UA 2740 United Flight history →	IAH 16:50	MIA 20:33	36%	10%	1.2%	75%worse than usual
AA 1931 American Flight history →	IAH 18:12	MIA 21:50	37%	11%	1.9%	42%
B6 2780 JetBlue Flight history →	IAH 13:00	FLL 16:23	41%	13%	1.3%	35%
B6 2180 JetBlue Flight history →	IAH 16:42	FLL 20:05	48%	18%	3.3%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON