Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 27 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3797 at 05:25 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–38%.

Safest bet that day WN 3797 HOU 05:25 → BWI 09:30 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest F9 3068 IAH 16:21 → BWI 20:36 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3797 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 05:25	BWI 09:30	5%	1%	1.6%	95%
UA 1549 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	IAD 11:28	8%	2%	0.6%	92%
UA 2047 United Flight history →	IAH 07:46	DCA 11:56	8%	3%	0.6%	97%
UA 604 United Flight history →	IAH 07:40	BWI 11:47	8%	3%	0.6%	89%
AA 5247 American flown by PSA Flight history →	IAH 06:43	DCA 10:59	9%	3%	1.0%	94%
WN 1701 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 08:15	DCA 12:20	11%	3%	3.1%	82%
UA 1720 United Flight history →	IAH 12:16	BWI 16:30	13%	5%	0.6%	81%
UA 2670 United Flight history →	IAH 09:47	DCA 13:57	13%	4%	0.6%	88%
UA 2366 United Flight history →	IAH 12:13	IAD 16:30	15%	4%	0.6%	82%
UA 654 United Flight history →	IAH 11:55	DCA 16:03	16%	6%	0.6%	75%
UA 2224 United Flight history →	IAH 19:50	DCA 23:59	17%	5%	0.6%	70%
UA 2775 United Flight history →	IAH 20:20	IAD 00:31	17%	6%	0.7%	73%
UA 2388 United Flight history →	IAH 16:35	IAD 20:46	17%	6%	0.6%	70%
UA 1795 United Flight history →	IAH 18:32	BWI 22:45	18%	7%	0.6%	64%
WN 1960 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 11:50	BWI 15:55	18%	4%	1.7%	73%
AA 5526 American flown by PSA Flight history →	IAH 10:48	DCA 15:03	18%	6%	1.2%	62%
UA 625 United Flight history →	IAH 14:20	DCA 18:31	18%	6%	0.6%	69%
UA 1373 United Flight history →	IAH 18:32	IAD 22:43	19%	6%	0.6%	73%
UA 1627 United Flight history →	IAH 18:05	DCA 22:15	20%	7%	0.6%	66%
UA 2296 United Flight history →	IAH 16:55	DCA 21:06	21%	8%	0.6%	61%
WN 4669 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 18:15	BWI 22:25	25%	8%	0.8%	58%
AA 5333 American flown by PSA Flight history →	IAH 17:00	DCA 21:16	25%	10%	1.5%	38%
WN 1961 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 20:35	BWI 00:40	27%	7%	0.7%	54%
WN 4888 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 19:55	DCA 23:55	28%	9%	0.8%	48%
WN 1968 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 14:00	DCA 18:05	29%	8%	1.6%	67%
WN 184 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 15:25	BWI 19:35	30%	8%	1.2%	27%
F9 3068 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 16:21	BWI 20:36	38%	12%	1.3%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON