Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: B6 2121 at 08:59 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


B6 2121 JetBlue Flight history →	HPN 08:59	ACK 10:02	14%	6%	1.5%	90%
B6 2666 JetBlue Flight history →	HPN 15:59	ACK 17:07	27%	10%	2.0%	78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nantucket on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	HPN 11:00 → DCA 12:19AA 5282 · flown by PSA	2h 40m Washington	DCA 14:59 → ACK 16:40AA 4553 · flown by Republic	5h 40m	94%	78%
American Details →	HPN 07:55 → CLT 09:57AA 5403 · flown by PSA	1h 06m Charlotte	CLT 11:03 → ACK 13:20AA 3863 · flown by Envoy	5h 25m	91%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON