tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 4645 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record HPN 12:38 DTW 14:28 29% 13% 4.2% 71%
DL 4643 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record HPN 17:10 DTW 19:15 31% 25% 7.3% 69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → HPN 06:24 → ORD 08:05AA 3751 · flown by Envoy 2h 25m Chicago ORD 10:30 → DTW 13:04AA 3498 · flown by Envoy 6h 40m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → HPN 06:29 → ATL 08:46DL 2379 2h 14m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → DTW 12:56DL 1240 6h 27m 96% 82%
AmericanDetails → HPN 07:55 → CLT 09:57AA 5403 · flown by PSA 1h 18m Charlotte CLT 11:15 → DTW 13:01AA 1781 5h 06m 92% 77%
DeltaDetails → HPN 10:29 → ATL 12:53DL 4930 · flown by Endeavor 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 15:28 → DTW 17:27DL 1005 6h 58m 97% 76%
DeltaDetails → HPN 12:54 → ATL 15:16DL 2044 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 18:11 → DTW 20:13DL 1478 7h 19m 96% 76%
AmericanDetails → HPN 10:00 → CLT 12:01AA 5431 · flown by PSA 1h 42m Charlotte CLT 13:43 → DTW 15:31AA 1770 5h 31m 94% 75%
AmericanDetails → HPN 12:00 → ORD 13:38AA 3812 · flown by Envoy 1h 28m Chicago ORD 15:06 → DTW 17:41AA 3980 · flown by Envoy 5h 41m 91% 75%
AmericanDetails → HPN 13:43 → CLT 15:50AA 5180 · flown by PSA 1h 35m Charlotte CLT 17:25 → DTW 19:18AA 1794 5h 35m 89% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → HPN 16:29 → ATL 18:53DL 5405 · flown by Endeavor 1h 37m Atlanta ATL 20:30 → DTW 22:33DL 1232 6h 04m 69% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON