Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: B6 813 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 44%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


B6 813 JetBlue Flight history →	HPN 08:30	FLL 11:27	20%	7%	1.5%	80%
B6 613 JetBlue Flight history →	HPN 21:00	FLL 23:57	44%	19%	4.0%	68%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HPN 06:29 → ATL 08:46DL 2379	1h 39m Atlanta	ATL 10:25 → FLL 12:23DL 1512	5h 54m	95%	80%
American Details →	HPN 07:10 → ORD 08:51AA 3496 · flown by Envoy	3h 44m Chicago	ORD 12:35 → FLL 16:43AA 672	9h 33m	98%	72%
American Details →	HPN 07:55 → CLT 09:57AA 5403 · flown by PSA	1h 03m Charlotte	CLT 11:00 → FLL 13:03AA 1877	5h 08m	90%	70%
Delta Details →	HPN 10:29 → ATL 12:53DL 4930 · flown by Endeavor	3h 46m Atlanta	ATL 16:39 → FLL 18:40DL 1295	8h 11m	97%	69%
JetBlue Details →	HPN 08:00 → SJU 11:51B6 2601	2h 14m San Juan	SJU 14:05 → FLL 16:47B6 1454	8h 47m	97%	66%
Delta Details →	HPN 12:54 → ATL 15:16DL 2044	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 17:45 → FLL 19:43DL 1670	6h 49m	96%	66%
American Details →	HPN 10:00 → CLT 12:01AA 5431 · flown by PSA	1h 17m Charlotte	CLT 13:18 → FLL 15:20AA 1875	5h 20m	91%	63%
Delta Details →	HPN 16:29 → ATL 18:53DL 5405 · flown by Endeavor	3h 52m Atlanta	ATL 22:45 → FLL 00:39 +1DL 1229	8h 10m	96%	62%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	HPN 17:10 → DTW 19:15DL 4643 · flown by Endeavor	1h 29m Detroit	DTW 20:44 → FLL 23:42DL 2296	6h 32m	75%	47%
Delta Details →	HPN 16:29 → ATL 18:53DL 5405 · flown by Endeavor	1h 05m Atlanta	ATL 19:58 → FLL 21:56DL 1489	5h 27m	51%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON