Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 4693 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	HPN 15:08	MSP 17:13	34%	16%	4.6%	66%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind White Plains). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	HPN 06:24 → ORD 08:05AA 3751 · flown by Envoy	3h 42m Chicago	ORD 11:47 → MSP 13:32AA 3375 · flown by Envoy	8h 08m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	HPN 06:29 → ATL 08:46DL 2379	1h 09m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → MSP 11:31DL 2090	6h 02m	94%	84%
American Details →	HPN 06:30 → DCA 07:50AA 5678 · flown by PSA	2h 40m Washington	DCA 10:30 → MSP 12:20AA 3796 · flown by Envoy	6h 50m	94%	82%
American Details →	HPN 17:45 → ORD 19:40AA 4112 · flown by Envoy	2h 56m Chicago	ORD 22:36 → MSP 00:22 +1AA 4472 · flown by Republic	7h 37m	96%	80%
American Details →	HPN 12:00 → ORD 13:38AA 3812 · flown by Envoy	2h 05m Chicago	ORD 15:43 → MSP 17:32AA 4425 · flown by Republic	6h 32m	96%	79%
American Details →	HPN 07:55 → CLT 09:57AA 5403 · flown by PSA	1h 18m Charlotte	CLT 11:15 → MSP 12:54AA 2153	5h 59m	92%	78%
Delta Details →	HPN 10:29 → ATL 12:53DL 4930 · flown by Endeavor	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 16:38 → MSP 18:18DL 2654	8h 49m	97%	76%
Delta Details →	HPN 12:38 → DTW 14:28DL 4645 · flown by Endeavor	3h 42m Detroit	DTW 18:10 → MSP 19:07DL 1842	7h 29m	99%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	HPN 17:26 → DCA 18:58AA 5401 · flown by PSA	1h 08m Washington	DCA 20:06 → MSP 21:54AA 5506 · flown by PSA	5h 28m	66%	44%
Delta Details →	HPN 17:10 → DTW 19:15DL 4643 · flown by Endeavor	51m Detroit	DTW 20:06 → MSP 21:00DL 1303	4h 50m	62%	44%
Delta Details →	HPN 16:29 → ATL 18:53DL 5405 · flown by Endeavor	1h 06m Atlanta	ATL 19:59 → MSP 21:38DL 1280	6h 09m	51%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON