Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: B6 1067 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–37%.

Safest bet that day B6 1067 HPN 07:00 → PBI 09:45 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time Riskiest B6 1567 HPN 18:35 → PBI 21:29 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 1067 JetBlue Flight history →	HPN 07:00	PBI 09:45	12%	5%	1.8%	72%
B6 1167 JetBlue Flight history →	HPN 10:29	PBI 13:17	18%	9%	2.0%	83%
B6 367 JetBlue Flight history →	HPN 14:29	PBI 17:21	37%	18%	7.0%	77%worse than usual
B6 1567 JetBlue Flight history →	HPN 18:35	PBI 21:29	37%	24%	3.7%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON