Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, B6 1551 at 06:30, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


B6 1551 JetBlue Flight history →	HPN 06:30	RSW 09:23	10%	3%	14.2%	95%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Myers on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HPN 06:29 → ATL 08:46DL 2379	1h 39m Atlanta	ATL 10:25 → RSW 12:11DL 1153	5h 42m	95%	64%
Delta Details →	HPN 15:08 → MSP 17:13DL 4693 · flown by Endeavor	2h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 19:29 → RSW 23:52DL 2268	8h 44m	91%	64%
Delta Details →	HPN 10:29 → ATL 12:53DL 4930 · flown by Endeavor	2h 06m Atlanta	ATL 14:59 → RSW 16:44DL 1379	6h 15m	94%	61%
American Details →	HPN 06:30 → DCA 07:50AA 5678 · flown by PSA	2h 56m Washington	DCA 10:46 → RSW 13:24AA 2448	6h 54m	95%	60%
American Details →	HPN 07:55 → CLT 09:57AA 5403 · flown by PSA	3h 13m Charlotte	CLT 13:10 → RSW 15:09AA 2444	7h 14m	96%	59%
Delta Details →	HPN 12:54 → ATL 15:16DL 2044	1h 51m Atlanta	ATL 17:07 → RSW 18:55DL 1124	6h 01m	96%	59%
Delta Details →	HPN 16:29 → ATL 18:53DL 5405 · flown by Endeavor	3h 47m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → RSW 00:23 +1DL 1217	7h 54m	96%	59%
American Details →	HPN 07:10 → ORD 08:51AA 3496 · flown by Envoy	3h 50m Chicago	ORD 12:41 → RSW 16:34AA 2437	9h 24m	98%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON