Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, B6 1447 at 10:47, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


B6 1447 JetBlue Flight history →	HPN 10:47	TPA 13:29	15%	6%	16.8%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HPN 06:29 → ATL 08:46DL 2379	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → TPA 12:39DL 1099	6h 10m	96%	69%
American Details →	HPN 06:30 → DCA 07:50AA 5678 · flown by PSA	2h 25m Washington	DCA 10:15 → TPA 12:40AA 2852	6h 10m	93%	66%
American Details →	HPN 06:24 → ORD 08:05AA 3751 · flown by Envoy	1h 00m Chicago	ORD 09:05 → TPA 12:56AA 2920	6h 32m	92%	64%
American Details →	HPN 07:55 → CLT 09:57AA 5403 · flown by PSA	2h 57m Charlotte	CLT 12:54 → TPA 14:38AA 2832	6h 43m	95%	63%
Delta Details →	HPN 10:29 → ATL 12:53DL 4930 · flown by Endeavor	2h 32m Atlanta	ATL 15:25 → TPA 16:58DL 759	6h 29m	97%	62%
Delta Details →	HPN 12:54 → ATL 15:16DL 2044	2h 06m Atlanta	ATL 17:22 → TPA 18:57DL 1594	6h 03m	96%	61%
American Details →	HPN 10:00 → CLT 12:01AA 5431 · flown by PSA	3h 56m Charlotte	CLT 15:57 → TPA 17:41AA 2777	7h 41m	98%	56%
American Details →	HPN 11:00 → DCA 12:19AA 5282 · flown by PSA	3h 27m Washington	DCA 15:46 → TPA 18:15AA 2773	7h 15m	95%	54%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	HPN 15:08 → MSP 17:13DL 4693 · flown by Endeavor	1h 02m Minneapolis	MSP 18:15 → TPA 22:26DL 2385	7h 18m	68%	42%
Delta Details →	HPN 16:29 → ATL 18:53DL 5405 · flown by Endeavor	1h 06m Atlanta	ATL 19:59 → TPA 21:30DL 1720	5h 01m	51%	28%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON