Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 6–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2556 HSV 05:30 → ATL 07:31 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 99% on time Riskiest DL 2182 HSV 18:19 → ATL 20:35 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 2556 Delta Flight history →	HSV 05:30	ATL 07:31	6%	3%	0.7%	99%
DL 3036 Delta Flight history →	HSV 08:50	ATL 10:50	6%	4%	0.7%	93%
DL 1708 Delta Flight history →	HSV 09:50	ATL 11:49	6%	3%	0.7%	93%
DL 3009 Delta Flight history →	HSV 07:12	ATL 09:17	7%	3%	0.7%	91%
DL 3068 Delta Flight history →	HSV 12:32	ATL 14:34	10%	3%	0.7%	89%
DL 3026 Delta Flight history →	HSV 16:20	ATL 18:25	12%	4%	0.7%	82%
DL 3171 Delta Flight history →	HSV 19:46	ATL 22:00	12%	5%	0.8%	78%
DL 2182 Delta Flight history →	HSV 18:19	ATL 20:35	14%	4%	0.7%	85%
DL 4760 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	HSV 14:50	ATL 16:57	44%	24%	0.0%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON