Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 5211 at 05:39, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5211 HSV 05:39 → CLT 08:20 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 5211 American flown by PSA Flight history →	HSV 05:39	CLT 08:20	11%	5%	1.1%	95%
AA 5810 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	HSV 11:16	CLT 13:57	23%	3%	1.4%	77%
AA 5806 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	HSV 14:37	CLT 17:22	23%	7%	1.4%	77%
AA 5811 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	HSV 19:02	CLT 21:47	29%	11%	3.9%	71%
AA 5807 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	HSV 16:34	CLT 19:20	37%	17%	0.0%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON