Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 5216 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–21%.

Safest bet that day AA 5216 HSV 06:00 → DCA 09:04 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 5213 HSV 13:15 → DCA 16:20 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5216 American flown by PSA Flight history →	HSV 06:00	DCA 09:04	10%	4%	1.5%	87%
AA 3997 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	HSV 09:56	DCA 12:59	14%	3%	1.1%	84%
AA 3581 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	HSV 18:27	DCA 21:30	20%	5%	1.7%	67%
AA 5213 American flown by PSA Flight history →	HSV 13:15	DCA 16:20	21%	8%	1.4%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON