Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 13–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3394 HSV 05:00 → DFW 07:11 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 5205 HSV 18:18 → DFW 20:30 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3394 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	HSV 05:00	DFW 07:11	13%	3%	1.1%	89%
AA 3578 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	HSV 09:32	DFW 11:41	15%	3%	0.8%	83%
AA 3031 American Flight history →	HSV 06:00	DFW 08:11	18%	5%	1.1%	81%
AA 3577 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	HSV 12:03	DFW 14:14	20%	4%	0.8%	86%
AA 3579 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	HSV 19:37	DFW 21:50	20%	5%	1.2%	70%
AA 3580 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	HSV 15:37	DFW 17:48	21%	4%	0.8%	70%
AA 5205 American flown by PSA Flight history →	HSV 18:18	DFW 20:30	22%	7%	2.4%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON