Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 6464 HSV 05:04 → ORD 07:30 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 5003 HSV 10:43 → ORD 13:00 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 6464 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	HSV 05:04	ORD 07:30	14%	6%	1.3%	91%
AA 5003 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	HSV 10:43	ORD 13:00	19%	8%	1.0%	87%
UA 4480 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	HSV 07:15	ORD 09:33	12%	7%	1.1%	88%
UA 4469 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	HSV 12:57	ORD 15:10	33%	15%	5.9%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON