Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 4557 American flown by Republic Flight history →	HYA 14:06	DCA 15:59	13%	4%	1.0%	78%
AA 4555 American flown by Republic Flight history →	HYA 18:22	DCA 20:15	16%	6%	1.3%	65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	HYA 13:26 → LGA 14:46AA 4565 · flown by Republic	2h 34m New York	LGA 17:20 → DCA 18:58AA 4773 · flown by Republic	5h 32m	94%	68%
American Details →	HYA 12:45 → PHL 14:19AA 4430 · flown by Republic	1h 10m Philadelphia	PHL 15:29 → DCA 16:44AA 5636 · flown by PSA	3h 59m	91%	60%
JetBlue Details →	HYA 16:53 → JFK 18:00B6 1963	3h 30m New York	JFK 21:30 → DCA 22:59B6 955	6h 06m	97%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON