Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 4565 at 13:26, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 4565 American flown by Republic Flight history →	HYA 13:26	LGA 14:46	20%	9%	0.9%	57%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	HYA 18:22 → DCA 20:15AA 4555 · flown by Republic	2h 15m Washington	DCA 22:30 → LGA 23:44AA 4660 · flown by Republic	5h 22m	96%	70%
American Details →	HYA 14:06 → DCA 15:59AA 4557 · flown by Republic	1h 27m Washington	DCA 17:26 → LGA 18:57AA 4685 · flown by Republic	4h 51m	94%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON