tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Albuquerque on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1822 United Flight history → IAD 17:45 ABQ 19:59 16% 6% 0.6% 72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Albuquerque on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Albuquerque is 2 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAD 06:30 → IAH 08:39UA 1935 1h 21m Houston IAH 10:00 → ABQ 11:25UA 3982 · flown by Mesa 6h 55m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127 1h 22m Atlanta ATL 09:05 → ABQ 10:12DL 1004 6h 12m 96% 85%
UnitedDetails → IAD 06:10 → ORD 07:27UA 2070 1h 33m Chicago ORD 09:00 → ABQ 11:23UA 215 7h 13m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35AA 2617 2h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:41 → ABQ 11:37AA 3371 · flown by Envoy 7h 23m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → IAD 10:21 → ATL 12:05DL 1324 2h 18m Atlanta ATL 14:23 → ABQ 15:31DL 1109 7h 10m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → IAD 06:30 → DEN 08:22UA 2031 2h 53m Denver DEN 11:15 → ABQ 12:37UA 1402 8h 07m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → IAD 15:56 → DEN 18:03UA 395 3h 07m Denver DEN 21:10 → ABQ 22:43UA 4761 · flown by SkyWest 8h 47m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:15 → DEN 10:10UA 792 3h 40m Denver DEN 13:50 → ABQ 15:12UA 691 8h 57m 97% 79%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON