Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via O'Hare, leaving 06:10, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 58% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 2073 United Flight history →	IAD 17:43	ANC 21:21	17%	5%	0.7%	74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 4 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	IAD 08:40 → IAH 10:59UA 1524	3h 21m Houston	IAH 14:20 → ANC 18:41UA 2369	14h 01m	99%	85%
United Details →	IAD 06:10 → ORD 07:27UA 2070	1h 37m Chicago	ORD 09:04 → ANC 12:56UA 840	10h 46m	98%	84%
United Details →	IAD 06:30 → DEN 08:22UA 2031	2h 58m Denver	DEN 11:20 → ANC 14:53UA 280	12h 23m	100%	83%
United Details →	IAD 12:40 → SFO 15:27UA 1434	3h 20m San Francisco	SFO 18:47 → ANC 22:40UA 1594	14h 00m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest	57m Minneapolis	MSP 08:50 → ANC 11:34DL 555	9h 34m	93%	79%
United Details →	IAD 14:35 → DEN 16:29UA 1126	3h 56m Denver	DEN 20:25 → ANC 23:59UA 400	13h 24m	99%	79%
United Details →	IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865	3h 30m Denver	DEN 15:35 → ANC 19:12UA 1592	12h 59m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	IAD 18:46 → MSP 20:56DL 3783 · flown by SkyWest	1h 17m Minneapolis	MSP 22:13 → ANC 00:59 +1DL 411	10h 13m	92%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	IAD 18:14 → SEA 21:09AS 737	48m Seattle	SEA 21:57 → ANC 00:41 +1AS 1560	10h 27m	58%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON