tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Denver, leaving 06:30, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Burbank on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 3 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAD 06:30 → DEN 08:22UA 2031 2h 53m Denver DEN 11:15 → BUR 12:48UA 2154 9h 18m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → IAD 07:15 → SLC 09:54DL 432 51m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → BUR 11:54DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest 7h 39m 88% 79%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127 3h 36m Atlanta ATL 11:19 → BUR 12:55DL 483 9h 55m 99% 78%
AmericanDetails → IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35AA 2617 2h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:56 → BUR 12:05AA 1617 8h 51m 98% 75%
UnitedDetails → IAD 14:51 → SFO 17:38UA 2862 2h 42m San Francisco SFO 20:20 → BUR 21:47UA 1367 9h 56m 96% 75%
UnitedDetails → IAD 12:40 → SFO 15:27UA 1434 2h 27m San Francisco SFO 17:54 → BUR 19:20UA 1321 9h 40m 97% 74%
UnitedDetails → IAD 14:35 → DEN 16:29UA 1126 2h 44m Denver DEN 19:13 → BUR 20:43UA 2411 9h 08m 99% 73%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:35 → SFO 11:19UA 1147 2h 31m San Francisco SFO 13:50 → BUR 15:17UA 626 9h 42m 98% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → IAD 12:40 → SFO 15:27UA 1434 48m San Francisco SFO 16:15 → BUR 17:42UA 2764 8h 02m 72% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON