Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 5219 at 09:20 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 5219 IAD 09:20 → CLT 10:57 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AA 1450 IAD 20:22 → CLT 21:55 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 5219 American flown by PSA Flight history →	IAD 09:20	CLT 10:57	9%	4%	0.8%	84%
AA 5054 American flown by PSA Flight history →	IAD 05:03	CLT 06:35	10%	5%	1.1%	91%
AA 5220 American flown by PSA Flight history →	IAD 13:08	CLT 14:42	13%	6%	0.9%	72%
AA 1216 American Flight history →	IAD 06:33	CLT 08:00	13%	3%	0.7%	83%
AA 1450 American Flight history →	IAD 20:22	CLT 21:55	25%	6%	0.8%	52%
UA 6239 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 12:43	CLT 14:12	22%	7%	1.4%	78%
UA 6209 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 17:20	CLT 19:02	27%	9%	5.4%	73%
UA 6234 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 22:24	CLT 23:59	32%	9%	3.0%	68%
UA 4063 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 08:15	CLT 09:45	38%	2%	0.0%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON