Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2471 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–19%.

Safest bet that day UA 2471 IAD 08:30 → DFW 10:53 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 1904 IAD 19:31 → DFW 21:50 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2471 United Flight history →	IAD 08:30	DFW 10:53	7%	3%	0.6%	88%
AA 2617 American Flight history →	IAD 06:14	DFW 08:35	7%	3%	0.8%	85%
AA 1906 American Flight history →	IAD 11:59	DFW 14:17	11%	4%	0.8%	79%
UA 1564 United Flight history →	IAD 12:41	DFW 15:05	11%	4%	0.6%	79%
UA 2116 United Flight history →	IAD 18:00	DFW 20:25	13%	6%	0.6%	72%
AA 1904 American Flight history →	IAD 19:31	DFW 21:50	19%	6%	0.8%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON