Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 7–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2884 IAD 11:10 → DTW 12:47 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 1787 IAD 17:26 → DTW 19:15 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 2884 Delta Flight history →	IAD 11:10	DTW 12:47	7%	3%	0.6%	90%
DL 3826 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IAD 06:00	DTW 07:35	9%	6%	0.6%	86%
UA 3495 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IAD 12:55	DTW 14:34	10%	3%	0.6%	73%
DL 1787 Delta Flight history →	IAD 17:26	DTW 19:15	16%	4%	0.6%	76%
UA 6137 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 08:35	DTW 10:14	10%	5%	0.4%	90%
UA 6246 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 17:22	DTW 19:02	22%	11%	4.3%	78%
UA 3995 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 22:10	DTW 23:51	38%	16%	2.9%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON