Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2147 at 06:33 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–43%.

Safest bet that day UA 2147 IAD 06:33 → EWR 07:52 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest UA 1831 IAD 17:42 → EWR 19:10 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2147 United Flight history →	IAD 06:33	EWR 07:52	8%	2%	0.8%	97%
UA 2396 United Flight history →	IAD 08:29	EWR 09:55	12%	3%	0.8%	89%
UA 1997 United Flight history →	IAD 22:29	EWR 23:59	25%	7%	0.8%	78%
UA 1498 United Flight history →	IAD 12:35	EWR 14:01	26%	9%	0.8%	69%
UA 1831 United Flight history →	IAD 17:42	EWR 19:10	43%	13%	0.8%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON