tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Honolulu on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 345 United Flight history → IAD 08:30 HNL 12:20 22% 8% 0.7% 76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 6 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127 2h 07m Atlanta ATL 09:50 → HNL 13:20DL 837 13h 20m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest 2h 17m Minneapolis MSP 10:10 → HNL 13:43DL 312 13h 43m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → IAD 06:10 → ORD 07:27UA 2070 2h 03m Chicago ORD 09:30 → HNL 13:32UA 219 13h 22m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest 2h 55m Detroit DTW 10:30 → HNL 14:07DL 307 14h 07m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → IAD 12:40 → SFO 15:27UA 1434 3h 33m San Francisco SFO 19:00 → HNL 21:43UA 638 15h 03m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → IAD 07:15 → SLC 09:54DL 432 1h 51m Salt Lake City SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316 13h 04m 97% 80%
UnitedDetails → IAD 13:10 → LAX 15:42UA 1689 3h 03m Los Angeles LAX 18:45 → HNL 21:38UA 2390 14h 28m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → IAD 06:30 → DEN 08:22UA 2031 3h 38m Denver DEN 12:00 → HNL 15:13UA 384 14h 43m 100% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON