tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Houston on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127 3h 22m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → HOU 12:10DL 1195 7h 10m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → IAD 10:21 → ATL 12:05DL 1324 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381 7h 01m 98% 79%
AmericanDetails → IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35AA 2617 2h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:51 → HOU 12:16AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest 7h 02m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → IAD 15:02 → ATL 16:53DL 2135 3h 52m Atlanta ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051 7h 49m 98% 74%
AmericanDetails → IAD 11:59 → DFW 14:17AA 1906 2h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:56 → HOU 18:19AA 6385 · flown by SkyWest 7h 20m 97% 72%
AmericanDetails → IAD 19:31 → DFW 21:50AA 1904 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:38 → HOU 23:56AA 5465 · flown by PSA 5h 25m 77% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON