Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2084 at 08:32 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–32%.

Safest bet that day UA 2084 IAD 08:32 → JAX 10:42 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest G4 380 IAD 18:46 → JAX 20:50 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2084 United Flight history →	IAD 08:32	JAX 10:42	10%	4%	0.7%	90%
UA 293 United Flight history →	IAD 17:53	JAX 20:08	16%	7%	0.8%	76%
G4 380 Allegiant	IAD 18:46	JAX 20:50	32%	13%	1.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON