Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, DL 5835 at 12:29, with a 23% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 5835 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	IAD 12:29	JFK 13:55	23%	5%	0.8%	42%
DL 5076 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 19:14	JFK 21:00	36%	22%	12.7%	64%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest	2h 39m Detroit	DTW 10:14 → JFK 11:58DL 2751	5h 58m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127	2h 01m Atlanta	ATL 09:44 → JFK 12:00DL 1034	6h 00m	98%	85%
American Details →	IAD 05:03 → CLT 06:35AA 5054 · flown by PSA	1h 36m Charlotte	CLT 08:11 → JFK 10:12AA 1029	5h 09m	94%	84%
Delta Details →	IAD 08:27 → ATL 10:18DL 3080	3h 37m Atlanta	ATL 13:55 → JFK 16:29DL 1575	8h 02m	99%	84%
American Details →	IAD 06:33 → CLT 08:00AA 1216	3h 45m Charlotte	CLT 11:45 → JFK 13:47AA 2812	7h 14m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	IAD 11:10 → DTW 12:47DL 2884	3h 31m Detroit	DTW 16:18 → JFK 18:29DL 2934	7h 19m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	IAD 12:37 → ATL 14:28DL 1444	2h 27m Atlanta	ATL 16:55 → JFK 19:48DL 2378	7h 11m	97%	79%
American Details →	IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35AA 2617	1h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:50 → JFK 14:34AA 1766	8h 20m	95%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON